Koornwinder Convention. Grand Hotel Amsterdam, 2010
TV-show 'Anno Joosten' 1995
Circles of Knowledge Conference
Marlborough College 2011
Throughout her career as a global market analyst, Herma Koornwinder gave numerous warnings, both in the media and at conferences and seminars on the fact that education in the Netherlands was not aimed at the high-tech society and the resultant unemployment.
KGMN makes active investing possible
Behind the system of Mrs Koornwinder, a firm belief is hidden. She explains: ‘We have a major problem in the Netherlands. It has become evident that the breakdown of our social security system has begun. There is reason to wonder if the pension funds will have enough financial means in the future to fulfil their obligations.
‘In addition, we will be increasingly active on the digital highway. I believe that our country does not worry enough about a jobless society. The increasing possibilities in the field of automation will lead to a major loss of jobs in the service industry. Routine actions and thinking will be taken over by computers. In addition, certain activities will be outsourced to low-income countries. All of this is possible thanks to the modern means of communication. The question remains if the huge loss of jobs will be affordable in the near future. My vision is that global investment, and especially active investment, gives the financial power to fund the jobless society. Otherwise we will not be able to afford the ageing nor the unemployment.’
Investing: intuition or institution?
New investment technology vital to finance effects of ageing and high-tech unemployment
Erasmus University Rotterdam: Pecunia Forum en Magazine
And as if sharply rising costs for social security as a result of a job reduction are not bad enough, we are also facing a rapidly ageing population. Within 15 years, when the baby boomers will retire, the Dutch ageing of population will accelerate rapidly. Around the year 2040 a quarter of the population will be 65 years or older. The consequences of the ageing of the population are already tangible: health expenses were this year already higher than calculated, and next year these expenses are expected to be about one billion higher (NRC 21.3.96). And let us not forget that in 1995 already 1/5 of the national income was spent on old-age insurance (AOW), health and supplementary pensions.
The high costs that our society will face in the near future are mainly expenses for high unemployment and the ageing population. It is unclear whether the retirement and social security funds, which will have to foot the bill, will continue to be able to fulfil their financial obligations.
This does, however, touch upon a subject that will prove to be crucial for the future of our society, i.e. the new knowledge technology. Accordingly the main message of the OECD report about the connection between technology, productivity and job-creation as presented at the second G7 Employment Summit in Lille, France, was that “technology” and “knowledge” will be the most important sources of economic growth in the long-term (NRC 5.4.96). I do, however, want to emphasise that this country is at risk of missing the knowledge technology boat if we do not make the necessary investments and change our attitude. We already have a shortage of highly educated computer engineers. And while the future demand for computer scientists will explosively grow, first-year enrolments for this subject have been falling since 1988 from 1,200 to about 450.
The dissident vision of Herma Koornwinder
The digital era and the high-tech unemployment resulting therefrom are subjects with which she is preoccupied. The impact of advanced automation, in combination with the rise of artificial intelligence, will be much more dramatic than that of old age, according to Koornwinder......
'The investment industry needs to change’
I believe that our country does not worry enough about a jobless society. The increasing possibilities in the field of automation, will lead to a major loss of jobs in the service industry. Routine actions and thinking will be taken over by computers. In addition, certain activities will be outsourced to low-income countries. All of this is possible thanks to the modern means of communication. The question remains if the huge loss of jobs will be affordable in the near future.
It is my vision that global investing, in particular active investing, will provide the financial means to fund such jobless society. Therefore I advocate a completely different investment strategy.
How well is Herma Koornwinder performing?
For future rate forming, she indicates two determining factors: the ageing of the population in the West, and unemployment caused by high-tech innovation.
Computers have quickly caught up with time-honoured investment profundities
Koornwinder thinks that, as computers and new complex sciences become more and more important, our society will become one in which one mouse click can have serious consequences. Monotonous manual work and routine thinking will be placed under one button on the keyboard of the computer.
This means that high-tech will not just make people unemployed, but many people will not even be able to complete education for the new high-tech jobs. According to Koornwinder, way too little attention is paid to this development. “Why is there no minister of information technology? For the average citizen, things will become way too complex.”
Together with rapid ageing of the population, high-tech unemployment is casting its shadows forward, she believes, and it will result in large costs for society. According to Koornwinder, investment experts can contribute to a solution. “We should not simply collect it from the citizen. There are huge savings of pension premiums amounting to almost ƒ800 billion. If, with a better control of the risk, one additional percent of return on investment is realised, the pension premiums can be lowered 15%.”
Professionals await their buying moment
Koornwinder is mostly worried about the long term. The efficiency transition companies are going through, which is the motor behind profit growth and the basis of the rate increases, has a hazardous side from a social perspective, in the form of high-tech unemployment. The information revolution also creates new jobs, but people are not yet ready for that, she believes.
Waiting for the Nintendo generation
Investment advisor Koornwinder: 'We need people with courage'
Koornwinder’s core themes remain, invariably and inevitably, high-tech and unemployment, ageing and affordability of pensions. “For the imminent ageing of the population, we should already have had a plan ready, otherwise it will not be affordable.
Why not invoke a care duty instead of military duty, in which all layers of the population are involved. If the pension premiums also make a few percent more than with the current investment theories, we can steer the ageing in the right direction, which means that medication does not have to be rationed, that patients do not have to wait in the hallway and that waiting lists are a thing of the past. We can turn pig farms into farm campsites where old people come in with a cane, to leave in Bermuda shorts on a bike.”
Back to the Top >