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Performance

There is a link from each headline below, where appropriate, to the corresponding full article on the Media/Articles 1987-2007 page. Herma is grateful to the media for giving her the chance to publicise her results.



Anouk is hooked
1987-06-15, NRC Handelsblad 

[NOTE: In this article, Herma has taken the pseudonym of Anouk Kok]

By A.L. Hiele

"We conclude with one of her predictions: almost all indicators of the American stock market show an upward breakthrough of the stock price."

19870615

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Part from a letter from Mr Peters regarding the October 87 crash - Trading Decision Analyses
1994-12-07

......Ik herinner mij dat u zeer stellig was over de validiteit van de door u gesignaleerde Head & Shoulder formaties omdat ze op dat moment gepaard gingen met een groot aantal negatieve indicatoren.

Ik herinner me ook dat ik nogal sceptisch was tijdens het gesprek en zoiets zei als: "Wanneer u gelijk hebt dan hangt ons een kernramp boven het hoofd." Toen ik mijn Teletext aanzette omdat de beurs inmiddels was open gegaan, zag ik tot mijn schrik dat de koersen in Amsterdam onderuit gingen, waarna ik het gesprek met spoed heb afgebroken.


View at this situation written in the Book ....... by Geoff Ward:

Later, Deloitte & Touche also acknowledged Herma’s prediction of Black Monday, accepting as evidence a letter to Herma, dated December 7, 1994, from J G Peters, the publisher of Optiesignaal, confirming she had called to warn him early on the morning of October 19, 1987, and saying that it was to her merit that the took negative signals in the markets with the utmost seriousness. The crash had just begun at the moment of their conversation, he wrote, although the full size of it was not visible at that time, the ‘factual bottom’ being reached in the first week of November 1987.


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Head and Shoulders
1987-12-12, NRC Handelsblad


By A.L. Hiele

"......funds such as Koninklijke Olie and Unilever are setting up a reversed head and shoulder fund. If this is completed with strong returns and share prices going up, the stock market will rise."

##### To add: Graph (Herma)


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The Hallelujah effect
1988, Mees Bulletin

By Wertheim Salomonson

"The Hallelujah effect: everyone can always tell you, almost exactly to the date, (which can hardly be called a service in hindsight) that we have passed the low. However, you hardly ever hear the unequivocal announcement of a recession, a depression, a bear market or a crash. A welcome exception to this sad rule is established by Mrs Koornwinder."





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Portfolio 2

Portfolios (X) created in December 1988 and January 1989 because of positive indicators......



Aankoop 5-1-'89

Portfolio 3





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Numerous answers possible to what private investors should do, but…
one thing is clear: value of advices is extremely relative

1992-04, Beursplein 5

By Hans Amesz

Dutch technical analyst Herma Koornwinder has made extraordinarily accurate predictions over the last couple of years. She foresaw the consequences the Gulf War would have on the financial markets and her prognoses about the Tokyo stock exchange were also spot on. Contrary to Wijmenga and Beckers, Koornwinder believes, just as the famous American analyst Elaine Garzarelli does, that investing is not an art, but definitely a science. What is her advice to the private investor?



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The European Garzarelli
Beursplein
1992-04-23, Trends

Door D.H.

Our 'Expert of the Week' Herma Koornwinder gave her vision on the international markets once before, during the Gulf war past year. Several readers valued her smart analysis, as well as her clear and correct advice. And most importantly, they turned out to be completely correct.



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Like a railway guide

Three scenarios for Tokyo

1992-04-23, Trends

Expert Speaking
Technical Analysis
By D.H.

INVESTING. In October 1987 you hit the mark with your prediction of an imminent crash. In 1990 you were right again when you predicted a collapse of the Japanese stock market.

HERMA KOORNWINDER. Indeed, in February 1990 I indicated a downturn of the Nikkei Dow Jones of 4000 points. After all, the bullish trend had lost its momentum and my indicators clearly indicated weakness on Kabuto-Chò. This indicated that a reversal mechanism got into stride. At that point, there was no Gulf crisis yet, let alone a Gulf war. When the descent ended, I issued new sell advice on a very regular basis. And at this moment, we are about 50% lower, almost exactly on the indicated rate target.


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Portfolio 4


Portfolio for ABN AMRO Eindhoven
1992-10-11

At the request of Mr Borghs of ABN AMRO in Eindhoven, on October 4, 1992, Herma analysed the EOE-index in positive, neutral and negative shares. This portfolio Herma Koornwinder then tracked until December 23 in the following year.
##### Check UK






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Be alert to bearish breakthrough
Stocks National


1993-01 (1992-12), Money

By Bob van der Burg

What can you say about the Amsterdam stock market?

“I am very positive towards the ABN AMRO, AEGON, AMEV, HEINEKEN. WESSANEN and WOLTERS KLUWER stock. For industrial funds such as DAF, BÜRHMANN-TETTERODE and FOKKER, I have issued sell advice on a regular basis in the past couple of months. Furthermore, I have a downright negative attitude towards KLM and NEDLLOYD."

Following the shares indicated in the article "Be alert to bearish breakthrough" the magazine Comeff has studied the development of these shares and published them as follows:

Translation of text below:
Today 27 november, so seven weeks later, five of the six funds indeed prove winners and four of the five indeed losers.
Here are the funds with their quotes on 12 October and 27 November.
Definitely a score that evokes curiosity.



Portfolio 5



 

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Portfolio 7



Stock of Japanese companies as economic barometer
1993-04-24, Het Financieele Dagblad

Technical analyst H.M.C. Koornwinder’s purchase advice list includes the Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank and Mitsubishi Bank. The value of this bank stock has increased 88% in less than a year. Why? Since Koornwinder does not want to reveal what she puts in her indicators, she cannot answer that question.

      Koornwinder has been positive about the Japanese stock market for quite some time - “even when the majority of the analysts were still very pessimistic regarding the development of the Japanese stock market.” Koornwinder answers evasively the question of whether the Japanese stock market will develop positively in the long-term: “My indicators are currently issuing positive signals.”

       The four tables below show how the KCG portfolio outperformed certain indexes and funds in the periods shown. The funds and indexes were selected for the financial press by Herma Koornwinder to test the efficiency of the KCG portfolio.

Performance KCG versus Nikkei Dow Jones 225 – the main Japanese index

Performance KCG versus 0WI (Database Code for the MSCI World Index) – the Morgan Stanley Capital International Index

Performance KCG versus Robeco – a Dutch investment company, then part of Rabobank, for European shares 

Performance KCG versus Rolinco – a fund under Robeco for Japanese and Far East shares

2. 4. 1993 - 4.6.1993

Performance KCG versus Nikkei Dow Jones 225

Performance KCG versus 0WI (MSCI World Index) 

Performance KCG versus Robeco

Performance KCG versus Rodamco – a property investment fund under Robeco

2.4.1993 - 24.6.1993

Performance KCG versus Nikkei Dow Jones 225

2.4.93 - 13.8.1993

Performance KCG versus Nikkei Dow Jones 225

2.4.1993 - 23.12.1993

For further information and background, particularly in relation to the KCG fund’s performance against the Nikkei index, see ‘Stock of Japanese companies as economic barometer’ (Het Financieele Dagblad, 24.4.1993) on the Articles page of this website. The article says that Herma Koornwinder’s advice list included the Mitsubishi and Kongyo banks of Japan.










To add: Portfolio 93001 #####

The three tables below show how the KCG portfolio outperformed the Nikkei Dow Jones 225 index in the periods shown.

Performance KCG versus Nikkei Dow Jones 225

13.4.1993 - 23.12.1993

13.4.1993 - 28.1.1994

13.4.1993 - 4.2.1994 


For further information and background, see ‘Stock of Japanese companies as economic barometer’ (Het Financieele Dagblad, 24.4.1993) on the Articles page of this website.











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Knowledge explosion
Letters 

1993-08-21, Beursplein 5

By Herma Koornwinder


The table below shows how the KCG portfolio outperformed the MSCI World Index and two Dutch investment funds in the period shown.

Performance KCG versus 0WI (database code for the MSCI World Index) – Morgan Stanley Capital International Index

Performance KCG versus Robeco – a Dutch investment company, then part of Rabobank, for European shares

Performance KCG versus Rolinco – a fund under Robeco for Japanese and Far East shares

18.6.1993 - 23.12.1993


Unfortunately, the article relating to this portfolio (Beursplein 5, 19.6.1993) is not available; however, a follow-up is available in which Herma Koornwinder refers back to the June 19 article. This is ‘Knowledge explosion’ in Beursplein 5 of 21.8.1993, which can be found on the Articles page of this website. Beursplein 5 is no longer published.





Furthermore, I want to elaborate on hedging a portfolio. The combination of stock and derivatives (read: options) in a hedge is such that the option protects the stock and vice versa. A decrease in value of the stock is compensated by an increase in value of the option, or the other way around. The perfect hedge ensures that a rate change of the stock does not affect the value of the portfolio.

As opposed to the institutional investor, I recommend individual investors to hedge during vacation times, thus, in a way, insuring their portfolio. Of course, this costs money, but so does your holiday insurance. By way of illustration, a calculation example of a hedge of the total portfolio, mentioned in Beursplein 5, dated June 19th 1993, to see of this can lead to reasonable results.

We are looking at the put October 320 at the time the index quoted 315.92. We therefore also need to include the October future in this story. The future is nothing more than the actual rate of the index, with addition of the interest until expiration, and with deduction of intermediate dividends.

                                                    18-6-‘93             16-1993

The October future quotes                319.10              351.80

The put October 320 quotes                 9.50                 1.70

The total investment is                     328.60              353.50

So the result is: 353.50 - 328.60 = 7.58%

The EOE index advanced with 11.03 percent, but this does not include interest and dividend. Regarding the future increase, a more realistic increase of 10.24% applies. In short, the hedge has cost 2.5% in return. However, the thus obtained security will provide for a carefree holiday.


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Against the current
Beursplein 

1993-09-09, Trends

Door D.H.

"Loyal readers will probably remember the Dutch independent technical analyst Herma Koornwinder as ‘Expert Speaking’. When the Dutch financial world was very negative, she sent optimistic messages into the world during the Gulf War – based on her technical analysis (KCG) indicators. Last year, these were crystal clear, stating target objectives for the Dow Jones Industrials: 3600 points; and for the EOE, 346 points.

     Koornwinder sticks to her credo: spreading is outdated. Why diversify? According to her, the opposite should be done: track down promising stock. That is the trend of the Nineties. Arbed, for instance, rose from 1700 BEF to 4300 BEF this year, whereas EuroDisney dropped from 98 to 50 FRF. A world of difference. This is why Koornwinder tracks stock markets on a global level, and selects winners and losers in 22 countries. Even now that her rate targets have been achieved, she keeps looking for the best bits. As long as her KCG indicators issue positive signals, she will respond to them.

      Her list of positive funds now includes, among, others: Itochu, Shiseido, Sharp, Broken Hill Properties, CRA, Hong Kong Land Holding, Overseas Chinese Banking, United Overseas Bank, BK Vision, Ciba-Geigy, CS Holding, EMS-Chemie Holding, Roche Holding, Pharma Vision 2000, Chindler Holding, Surveillance, Winterthur, Zurich, Boskalis, Elsevier, Hunter Douglas, Internatio-Müller, ING, Océ, Wolters-Kluwer, Nutricia, Alcatel, Compagnie Bancaire, Eurotunnel, Imétal, Matra-Hachette, Paribas, Bank Austria, Generalli, Bennetton, Cartiere, CIR, Chemina, Suez, Total, Valéo, Italgas, Olivetti, Arbed, Creditanstalt Bankverein, Ericsson, Volvo, Banco Popular Espagna, Telefonica, British Gas, Trade Universal Stores, M&S, Guinness, Pilkington, Reuters, Shell Transport and Thorn-EMI.

      Should, however, the ‘super-cycle bear market’ that has been predicted by a number of analysts for several years, announce itself one of these days, she will exit the market with a considerable profit, to re-enter it when the levels are low. (DH)

##### To add: portfolio 



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Portfolio 8



New fund for technical analysts in the pipeline
1993-10-09, Het Financieele Dagblad

By R. Bakker

"However, a demand for her vision is coming from the individual investor quarter which is why she is currently in talks about the introduction of an investment fund based on technical analysis. Her vision for the near future? The so-called “super-cycle bear market” which will cause the EOE to fall back to 40 points and the Dow Jones to drop below the 1,000 points, is not yet in sight. “Of course, I reckon with it, but if that collapse arrives, I hope to report and coach this in the same way that I did during the gradual crash of the Japanese stock market.”

Buy or Bear

The latest Koornwinder Chart Guidance update issues mainly a buy advice to the financial values and so-called defensive values. Of the Amsterdam stock market funds, Koornwinder is positive towards: ABN Amro, Aegon, Akzo, Amev, DSM, Elsevier, Gist, Heineken, ING, KLM, Philips, Polygram, Koninklijke Olie, VNU and Wolters Kluwer. “Should, however, the expected 'super-cycle bear market' emerge today or tomorrow, I will issue sell advice, only to eventually buy back at a considerably lower level.”"

The ‘gain and loss’ (winst/verlies) table below shows how the KCG portfolio outperformed the Amsterdam EOE index – later to become the Amsterdam AEX (Amsterdam Exchange Index) – in the period shown.

Performance KCG versus EOE – the European Options Exchange, Amsterdam

18.6.1993 - 17.12.1993


For further information and background, see ‘New fund for technical analysts in the pipeline’ (Het Financieele Dagblad, 9.10.1993) on the Articles page of this website.




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Select to win
Beursplein 

1993-12-02, Trends

By DH


"“Diversification is outdated; you need to start looking for promising stock.” That is the credo Dutch technical analyst Herma Koornwinder still believes in. At the start of December we published on this page the list of stock she was positive towards. Her selection rose with 7.07% during this period, the MSCI world index dropped with 1.93%. Robeco added only 0.85 %, despite its small army of professional analysts, and the Amsterdam Euro Top 100 rose 0.44%.

      The importance of – global – selection is evident based on her list of Japanese stock: while the Nikkei Dow Jones index collapsed, the selection of our “silicon globetrotter” rose over 15%. Her bearish rate target of 15,000 points for the Nikkei has now almost been reached and if that level is surpassed, we could continue to 13,000 points.

      She has also provided us with a list including some Dutch and Belgian, but mostly Swiss, stock she is positive towards: Broken Hill Properties, Overseas Chinese Banking, Ares-Serano, Bär Holding, BK Vision, EMS Chemie Holding, Forbo Holding, Merkur Holding, Motor Columbus, Pharma Vision 2000, Roche Holding, Schweizerische Bankgesellschaft, Zürich Versicherung, Heineken, Nedlloyd, Polygram, l’Oréal, Valéo, Banca Commerciale, GBL, Solvay, EVN Energievers. Niederösterreich, British Telecom, Great Universal Stores, Hanson Trust, Lohnro, Iberdrola. At the beginning of next year, an update will follow. (DH)

The table below shows how the KCG portfolio outperformed the MSCI World Index and two Dutch investment funds in the period shown.

Performance KCG versus 0WI (database code for the MSCI World Index) – Morgan Stanley Capital International Index

Performance KCG versus Robeco – a Dutch investment company, then part of Rabobank, for European shares

Performance KCG versus Rolinco – a fund under Robeco for Japanese and Far East shares

13.6.1993 – 23.12.1993

For further information and background, see  see ‘Select to win’ (Trends, 2.12.1993) on the Articles page of this website.

Portfolio 9








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Protect stock positions
Mrs Koornwinder warns based on own system 

1994-01-21, Beleggers Belangen

Beursvisie

By G.P.H. Lijnes

"Every now and then the name Mrs Koornwinder turns up in the media. She has repeatedly made correct predictions. She has been positive about the stock market since 1991, but indicates that counter pressure is to be expected soon. Investors can keep all their stock, but, according to her, need to hedge their portfolios. In other words, protecting them with options, for instance for half of the total. Currently it is unclear whether or not we are at the verge of a new upward wave or trend turning point.

Amazingly well

It has to be said that she obtained a perfect score with regard to her statements on the future trend of the stock market and the selections of the funds she made in different media. We will print one of many examples we received from her. It goes without saying that we have verified the accuracy of the data stated therein. It concerns a presentation at ABN AMRO Eindhoven for an investment study club, during which she only provided information about the EOE and gave a division in positive and negative funds. Other publications show that she has changed previous sell advice into buy advice (Nedlloyd, Van Ommeren e.a.) later on.

A comprehensive list with a selection of international funds, which she issued to the Belgian magazine Trends in August of last year, had risen 7% at the end of November 1993, whereas the world index dropped almost 2%. Another international buy list she issued, containing 27 funds, had climbed 6.5% a month later, whereas the world index had climbed just 0.12%.

(......)
19940121


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Koornwinder: Take the profits

1994-03-25

In BB-3 [January 1994], we left Mrs Koornwinder to spread the word about the markets.

    At that time, she advised investors to ‘hedge’, or safeguard, their positions because her system showed that one had to take into account several of her indicators which were showing weaknesses, even though the trend was still upwards. Now her advice to private investors is to take the profits.

    The fact is that the stock market, as measured at the Amsterdam EOE index, has not gone up one jot since her warnings [in January 1994]. The value of some individual shares has gone up, while the value of others has gone down. Shares which broke through resistances could be kept or bought, and shares which broke through support should be sold.

      It is Mrs Koornwinder’s philosophy to maximise gains and minimise losses. Private investors should now harvest their gains, and institutional investors who cannot do this to the full extent should adjust or hedge their portfolios accordingly. The [EOE] index has risen by 200 points, or 90 per cent, since Mrs Koornwinder’s system gave the sign for a long upward wave movement [in January 1991]. The best shares, obviously, have made even better gains than this in that period.

     
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Koornwinder issued timely warning
1994-07-01, Beleggers Belangen

Fair is fair: Mrs Koornwinder was one of the very few who signalled the end of the bull market at the beginning of this year. Our final issue was still filled with optimists (except for Leuschel), but in our issue of January 21st, we gave Mrs. Koornwinder the floor, who, based on a self-developed system, indicated that counter-pressure should be expected on the stock markets shortly. 

     She has been positive towards the stock markets since 1991, but stated in February that investors would be smart to hedge their portfolios. The trend was bullish and the markets could still rise a few more per cent, but several of her indicators showed attenuation. In addition, we should grant our technical analyst Neeter the credit he deserves. In the issue of January 4th, he indicated that the first candidates to reap profit had revealed themselves (Aegon, Elsevier and Wolters-Kluwer).

      But back to Mrs Koornwinder. In Beleggers Belangen of March 25th, she tightened her advice to individuals to reap their profit. Good advice. Amsterdam reached its top at the end of January with an AEX index of 439 and, in the final week of March, we were back to 415.

      Mrs Koornwinder sent us a list of the performance of the AEX funds that speaks for itself (...)


19940701

19940701


##### To add: explanation by Herma (to translate)


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Technical analysis warranty accountant versus the non-believers
1994-11-18, Het Financieele Dagblad


"Well, as mentioned before, that has resulted in his conclusion that Koornwinder Chart Guidance ‘has, at key moments, published expectations that have later been affirmed by the rate developments’. After that the accountant has also, in the same way, compared a number of theoretical portfolios that KCG composed against reality and, again, the conclusions were favourable for Koornwinder. Among these were four mixed and global portfolios. They were compared to a world index calculated by Morgan Stanley in the US. The first made a 28.18% profit during the period of analysis and was compared to the world index which increased by 21.65% during the same period. KCG’s other three mixed portfolios also outperformed this world index: plus 7.07% versus 4.58%, 10.89% versus 0.12% and 17.35% versus 6.10%. Only one Dutch portfolio of KCG (plus 26.24%) was unable to outperform the Amsterdam EOE index (plus 26.28%)."



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Day of the stock
1994-11-18, Het Financieele Dagblad

"For insiders: Mrs H. Koornwinder is finally proved right."


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'Investment of public money generates too little return'
'Stock market guru' Herma Koornwinder is often right
 

1994-12-17, Brabants Dagblad

By Chris Paulussen


19941217 

Prognosis KCG versus Amsterdam EOE Index. (KCG later became KGMN).



'Stocktendo' era
Upcoming financial trends scanned using advanced computer and information technology


1995-05-15, Trends – Cash!

To add: translated text (In French now): check translation #####

The advice from the expert

Here a list of financial markets and shares considered as interesting. The Amsterdam Stock Exchange currently seems to hesitate. In the event of an increase, the following shares are likely to achieve a better performance than the AEX index: Elsevier, IHC Caland, Internatio-Müller, Philips, Polygram, Stad Rotterdam, Van Ommeren, VNU and Wolters-Kluwer. In Europe the climate for the Swiss market is positive again. Attractive shares are: EA-Generali, OMV, Asea, Astra, Atlas, Copco, Ericsson, Mövenpick, Roche, Schweiz Bankverein, Schweiz Rückversicherung, Surveillance, Shell Transport, Thorn EMI and Vichers. On the Asian markets the following shares are on the buy list: HSBC Holding (Hong-Kong), Overseas Chinese Banking, Sime Darby Berhad and United Overseas Bank (Singapore).


To add: brochure KGMN prognose June 1995 in English (a lot of this is already in Pecunia) #####
Made for the KGMN Global Fund
##### To add later: begeleidende tekst in English (Herma) 



KGMN prognosis

June 1995


In early June 1995 KGMN gave with the fax below, at the request of Cash Magazine, a portfolio of shares, which would do better than the index.


19960201 


Translation:
We have examined what would have happened if, in early June 1995, in each fund from this portfolio, an equal amount was invested. The declaration covers 29 Dutch funds, 15 from the rest of Europe and four from the Far East. Deliberately, there were no funds from Japan and France included, for example, because at that time the KGMN indicators were not clear about giving good investment results in these regions. The French stock market was even analysed negatively. The Swiss market was analysed positively in the fax. How does the performance of this portfolio appear to be now?




Design
The investigated period is about 10 months, from June 2nd, 1995 until April 4th, 1996. Results of the first quarter of 1996 are also shown. The following criteria were used:

Each fund used the same amount of Dutch guilders;
An “all-in fee” of two per cent per year for transactions, management and advice is applicable;
Currency mutations have been taken into account.

NB: This portfolio has been provided to the magazine Cash as a one-off. This is why the usual adjustments by the manager/advisor did not take place and the possible paid out dividends were not recorded, which they obviously would have been in a normal situation.

When summarised a picture (see table) is formed of the results expressed in percentage, per region, compared to the relevant index.


 

1 Q
1996

Last 10 months

Index

1 Q1996

Last 10 months

Outperf.
1
 Q 1996

Outperf.
10 months

Netherlands

15,8%

28,5%

AEX

10,6%

24,0%

+5,2%

+4,5%

Rest of Europe

6,8%

19,5%

Euro-100

5,7%

14,6%

+1,1%

+4,9%

Europe (incl. Netherlands)

12,7%

25,4%

Euro-100

5,7%

14,6%

+7,0%

+10,9%

Far East

6,4%

3,4%

MSCI Pacific

5,5%

4,7%

+1,1%

-1,3%

Total portfolio

11,6%

23,2%

MSCI World

7,4%

13,3%

+4,2%

+9,9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Switzerland

…%

…%

Euro-100

5,7%

14,6%

 

 



Conclusion

* The portfolio as a whole did outperform the MSI World index over the first quarter of 1996 by +4.2% and by +9.9% over the last 10 months.

* Furthermore, the regions also realised an outperformance, with the exception of the 10-month-period in the Far East. The most remarkable results were the European outperformance by +7% and +10% respectively compared with the Euro-100 index.

* As expected, the Swiss index went up by +11% until the end of 1995, and the French index went down by -3.2%. In the same period, the Euro-100 index went up by 8.4%, which resulted in an outperformance of +2.6% by the Swiss index.

* Eight out of the 48 funds were negative at the end of 10 months, whilst 29 of the 48 funds, i.e. 62%, did better than the index. The statistical chance of such a high score being sheer coincidence is close to nothing.

On page 4 more details of the results are shown.


19960201



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KGMN makes active investing possible
1995-10, Management Info

19951000



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Herma Koornwinder, a Dutch guru
Outperforming the market is possible 

1995-11-10, Beleggers Belangen

By F.W.J. Baijens

"Without any doubt, the report is a result to be proud of. And it does not stop there. One of the funds composed by her agency, the so-called Koornwinder Benchmark Fund Nederland, was the only fund to score better than the CBS index in the third quarter of this year, 3.2% higher as a matter of fact. Other well-known names, such as the Amsterdam EO Index Fund, the Orange Fund and the ABN Amro Dutch Fund, all were lower than the CBS index.

See previous list of funds.


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Flemish investors remain unsatisfied at VFB-happening
Johnson alone provides tangibility 

1996-03-19, De Tijd (Belgium)

By ToP

"The down-to-earth Flemish still believe in investment truths such as risk-spreading, the influence of the dollar, efficient markets, and so on. Koornwinder’s talk about her high-tech computer-based investment model – the product of years of research – did not appeal to the Flemish investor. One attentive investor may have been on the money when he made the remark that, unlike other pension and investment funds, Koornwinder was able to move her capital freely in and out of different financial submarkets. No tip-offs from Koornwinder. ‘I am bound by the contracts with large banks’, she defended herself."

NOTE: At this event (VFB), Herma spoke about the advent of the digital era and recommended the technology sector and Delhaize to investors.






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Dutch Garzarelli avoids drop in rates
1996-07-26, Het Financieele Dagblad

"Prior to the rate drop in Amsterdam, Herma Koornwinder liquidated the entire portfolio of the KGMN Global Portfolio Fund (KGPF). As in 1987, the Dutch Garzarelli was one of the few to correctly predict a crash.

      At the Amsterdam securities firm Stroeve, with which Koornwinder collaborates as of recently, they jokingly call her Herma Garzarelli after her American counterpart Elaine who, just like her, was one of the few to correctly predict the stock market crash of 1987. Koornwinder commissioned Stroeve to drastically change the composition of the investment fund.

      ‘They did have some difficulty with that at Stroeve,’ says the self-made stock market guru to Dutch press agency ANP. ‘Did I not act a little too much like a trader? But eventually they agreed.’ Koornwinder decided to wait and see for a bit longer, just to be sure. But on July 8th she was afraid to postpone any longer. Just in time, as it turned out. Immediately after this, all financial markets took a turn for the worse. The Amsterdam EOE index has since dropped 8.25%, whereas the Japanese Nikkei index and the Dow Jones respectively dropped 7.2% and 4.2%.

      The total capital of KGPF is currently safely on deposit. Koornwinder: ‘Only when the indicators come around will we start investing again. For now, however, that is not the case.’"



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Quivering on the stock market 
1996-11-02, Elsevier


By Hans Crooijmans en Sheila Sitalsing



##### To add: a text to accompany the following text (Herma)

"

Columns


19961102 

Corné Zandbergen (36)

For two years head of the Institutional Research Department at the Generale Bank

How to invest a 100 grand?
Stock: 50%
Bonds: 30%
Liquidities: 20%

Hot tips!
Do: Aegon, Vendex International, VNU
Don’t: ACF, BolsWessanen, EVC 

When will the bear start to growl?
“The turning point will come this year when the American FED increases its interest. Europe will most likely follow suit. We believe that the capital market interest will gradually rise to 6.75 percent. We predict a decrease of the AEX to about 560 in the next couple of months. In about 12 months we aim at an AEX of 600 points.”


19961102

Peter Wortel (36)

Since the beginning of this year head of Research at Delta Lloyd Bank

How to invest a 100 grand?
Stock: 80%
Liquidities: 20%

Hot tips!
Do: Ahold, Hagemeyer, Cap Gemini
Don’t: Tulip, EVC, BolsWessanen

When will the bear start to growl?
“For the time being, we are not expecting a turning point. We do, however, expect a temporary drop in both the Dow Jones and the AEX, but we think the upward line will continue afterwards. In six months, the AEX is probably at 630 points. The Dow Jones at 6300 points.”

19961102

 

Lex van der Sommen (53)


Head of individual capital management ING
How to invest a 100 grand?
Stock: 45%
Bonds: 50%
Liquidities: 5%

Hot tips!
Do: IHC, Caland, Sligro, Randstad, Hagemeyer, financial values.
Don’t: cyclic funds

When will the bear start to growl?
“Not anytime soon, provided that the interest remains more or less at the current level . I believe that the AEX will be at about 620 in six months. For the Dow Jones, a level of 6500 seems realistic in six months. The inflow of institutional capital on the market is swelling.”


19961102

Roel Gooskens (37)


President of research of HSBC Van Meer James Capel
How to invest a 100 grand?
Stock: 100%
Assuming an investment horizon of at least three years.

Hot tips!
Do: KPN, Heineken, Nutricia. Extra tip: Roto Smeets de Boer
Don’t: BolsWessanen, KLM, Hoogovens

When will the bear start to growl?
“We are expecting the turning point will come at the introduction of the euro in January 1999. For now, the stock markets will continue to grow; the AEX to 650 points in six months and the Dow Jones to 6500 in six months.

 19961102 

Herma Koornwinder


Since January 1990, president of Koornwinder Global Market Navigation in Heeze.

How to invest a 100 grand?
Stock: 100%

Hot tips!
Do: Koninklijke Olie, Baan, Getronics
Don’t: Sphinx, Gustavsberg, Weweler, Rood Testhouse

When will the bear start to growl?
“I am currently positive towards the stock market. My indicators, based on the scan and navigation system I developed myself, indicate that there may be a turning point within one or two months. That is why I cannot say at which level the AEX or Dow Jones will be in six months. But for now, I am not expecting any bear.” "


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How well is Herma Koornwinder performing?
1996-12, Cash

By AM


"......
 since its creation (May 1st) until November 19th, the fund has had a performance of just 3 percent. With that, the self-made guru is about 6.7 percent behind on the AEX."

##### To add: text KGMN fund vs MSCI 


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Bij documentaire 25-4-1997 "slapend rijk" (Rich while sleeping)

To add: portfolio 97-98 #####

##### to add: text fund institutional investor





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A fund according to the Koornwinder system
1997-04-26, fem

By HCK

For an independent judgement of her system, she had accountancy agency Deloitte & Touche verify five years of her predictions. Conclusion: Koornwinder continuously outperforms the leading stock market indicators. She predicted the crashes of ’87 and ’89, as well as the drops in ’94, ’96 and ’97. “Indeed, in March, I issued a sell advice at the top of the market. 


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To add: Graphs #####

Performance of the KGMN portfolio during the Stroeve period1-5-1996 until 1-5-1997







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True stock market experts?
1997-07-26, Elsevier

Five professional investors tipped their favourite stock last year. The outcome after more than eight months of mad rate increases.

By Sheila Sitalsing

"
Last year, Elsevier interviewed five professional investors (see Elsevier 11-2-1996). We asked – among others - for hot tips: three Dutch stocks that would excel in the first part of 1997 (dos) and three disastrous funds (don’ts). How reliable did the tips turn out to be, more than eight months later? 

(......)

Herma Koornwinder, president of Koornwinder Global Market Navigation (KGMN) was luckiest. On average, her dos were better than those of the others and her don’ts performed much worse, just as it ought to be. She tipped Royal Oil (return 58.86%), Getronics (69.12%) and Baan, which at 143.63 percent upped the overall average to 90.54 percent. She recommended staying away from Sphinx (minus 16.46%), Weweler (still plus 33.12%) and Rood Testhouse (12.50%) which resulted in an average return of 9.72 percent for her don’ts."

19970726 

How well are they doing?

The average total return on tipped stocks between November 1st 1996 and July 9th 1997
Blue = dos
Red = don’ts


###### Onderstaande uitproberen: link naar afbeelding
‘Select to win’.
For further information and background, see  ‘Select to win’ (Trends, 2.12.1993) on the Articles page of this website.

 
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The big gamble turns out wrong
1997-07-26, Elsevier

By Sheila Sitalsing

"Where will the AEX index be at mid-1997? 620 points, one expert estimated, 650 points said another and a third predicted a decrease ‘to around the 560’. Well, predicting is a trade. It was November 1996 when Elsevier asked five professional investors: where will the AEX be in six months? At that point, the index was brushing against 600 points. Currently, it has surpassed 900."

Sometimes, analysts are right, but never in stock market predictions. Assuming it is true that stock rates take a random walk, an unpredictable drifting motion, it is logical that predictions are correct only incidentally and that people are deemed guru after one lucky strike.

      Still, five experts were willing to accept the challenge eight months ago. Peter Wortel, head of research at Delta Lloyd Bank, showed a sense of direction: “A temporary bearish correction is realistic, after which the bullish trend will continue.” However, the quantification of the direction was somewhat faulty: Wortel expected the AEX to climb to around 630 points in May 1997. Lex van der Sommen, at that point head of individual capital management at ING Bank, did not see a turning point “provided that the interest remains more or less at the current level “. Good guess. Position AEX mid-1997: “Around the 620.”

Wrong, but not as wrong as Corné Zandbergen, head of institutional research at Generale Bank. In November 1996, he predicted a bear and no later than this year, when the American FED increases its interest”. The AEX would drop, said Zandbergen, to 560 points to end up at 600 points in November 1997. Roel Gooskens, director of research   at HSBC Van Meer James Capel, said: “For now, the stock markets will continue to grow; the AEX to 650 points in six months.” Herma Koornwinder, president of Koornwinder Market Navigation, did not name any figures, but she saw “no bear any time soon”.


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Elsevier competition follow-up

Herma Koornwinder, 1997-10


After the Elsevier competition, referred to above, closed in July 1997, Herma continued to monitor her performance against that of the other four entrants until October. The bar charts below show, on the left, how Herma's 'dos' (green)  and 'don'ts' (red) performed against the others over a period of almost one year, and on the right, how Herma's total score in the period was by far the best.








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Small investor holds his breath
2002-07-26, Eindhovens Dagblad

By Lucas van Houtert

Dutch stock market expert H Koornwinder alerted us to the ‘great danger of banking’ as early as during the bull market of February 2000: because of hyped-up rates, the stock market could collapse like a house of cards at any moment: ‘The complexity of the financial world has become such that it is almost impossible to grasp for the man in the street. In the meantime, the investor loses on three different levels; while the value of his investments is decreasing, his pension premium is increasing because the pension funds are also losing on the stock markets. And investment mortgages are also problematic.’ 

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Investing on the crest of a wave
2003-08-01, Het Financieele Dagblad

By Frits Conijn

Over a period of 10 years, Koornwinder was able to make correctly, with one exception, all predictions about price drops higher than 10%, always using one and the same model. She also predicted the Black Monday of October 1987. In early 1991, at the time of the first Gulf War, when the whole financial world was most negative, she was optimistic about share prices. In January 1990, she warned some ten institutional investors of a crisis in Japan, and just before the burst of the internet bubble...

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